As the 2023 governorship election is imminent, most political observers in Oyo State have reduced the duel to a contest between Governor Seyi Makinde of the People’s Democractic Party (PDP) and Senator Teslim Folarin, who is the All Progressives Congress (APC’s) candidate.
This is not saying that the above mentioned contestants are the only ones in the race to Agodi Government House in March 2023. There are many others running for the election on different political platforms.
The incumbent, Makinde, was a lucky candidate, who emerged governor in 2019 on a roller-coaster of a coalition of most political parties’ candidates that was coordinated by a former governor of the state, Chief Rasidi Ladoja, who influenced them to step down for Makinde.
The coalition was the only option left in the arsenal of those who had resolved that the immediate past governor of the state, Senator Isiaka Ajimobi’s godson and the APC’s candidate in the 2019 governorship election was defeated. To ensure that anything Ajimobi was not allowed in any political office in the state, Ajimobi also lost his bid for a senatorial seat to represent Oyo State in the Senate.
The coalition, after Makinde had taken oath of office, quickly collapsed like a pack of cards as it was hit by centrifugal forces. Irreconciable differences reared their urgly heads at the conference table where booties and offices being shared tore members of the coalition apart. Most of those who contributed to making Makinde governor quickly left the administration.
This is why most people in Oyo State believe that Makinde might not be able to match his predecessor’s two-term record. They were quick to assert that Ibadan people don’t serve a governor twice or allow him to run for two-terms. It was Buhari’s change mantra in 2015 that enabled Ajimobi to have a second term they recalled. When people are reminded that Makinde has done much to merit a second term, doubt was raised on what Makinde’s supporters listed as impressive achievements that could attract massive votes for him in 2023 election.
Those who poohpoohed the claim of impressive achievements of Makinde said his political strength to woo voters in the state had been greatly reduced by the exit of the members of the coalition who facilitated his emergence in 2019. Makinde, observers recalled had also dropped the Deputy Governor, Engineer Rauf Olaniyan, who came into government with him in 2019, owing to political deferrences. Most of those who focused only on the weakness of the Oyo State governor, did not give a thought to the flip side of the weakness.
The man, Makinde, does not stand Akimbo, watching the unfolding events in the state without using his incumbency power to alter things in his favour the governor has changed his style of wooing new converts and reconciling aggrieved members of the party who had left the party or on the fence for various contentious issues. Makinde has embarked on Town Hall meeting tour of the state. He reminded stalwarts that his administration had not only fulfilled most promises he made during campaign, but had equally exceeded performance of his predecessor.
In what observers regarded a stroke of appeasement, he has refunded the nomination form fees paid by the House of Assembly aspirants who lost at the primary. Makinde also promised them that he would take care of their interests if he won the governorship election next year.
To woo the game master of the 2019 coalition, Makinde named a major project, the Ibadan circular road after Ladoja. It was learnt that he has variously empowered women leaders. He has recently turned to women for support. He bought Frando Jeeps for Mrs. Bose Adedibu to woo Adedibu’s followers in the PDP. Alhaja Mutiat, the First Lady to Ladoja when the high chief was the governor of the state also benefitted.
As a master strategist, who understands the political calculus of the race to 2023 general elections, his presence in the Integrity Group, the five PDP governors G5 who are having a dog fight against their party’s presidential candidate Abubakar Atiku, has elevated Makinde to a pan-Nigerian governorship candidate status in the 2023 March contest. He has risen beyond party line as he insisted on supporting a Southern presidential candidate for February, 2023 election to Aso-Rock as all the Southern Nigeria, governors earlier agreed in Asaba.
As Atiku has become the PDP’s presidential candidate, the PDP governors who are members of G5 are insisting that the national chairmanship of the PDP must go South, for fairness and balance, which Atiku is reluctant to comply with. Besides, Makinde is not hiding his support for the APC’s presidential candidate, Asiwaju Ahmed Tinubu. At a meeting recently held in Akure where Pa. Fasonranti-led Afenifere, Makinde publicly declared support for Tinubu.
Governor Makinde was represented by the Deputy Governor, Adebayo Lawal. The Deputy Governor said at the meeting that his principal, Seyi Makinde, told him to tell the Afenifere group who played host to Tinubu who had gone to Akure to inform the Afenifere of his intention to run for presidency that Makinde was in total support of Tinubu’s ambition.
Observers noted that this is a sort of symbiotic political relationship. There is no free lunch in politics. If you rub my back, I rub yours too. That is the name of the game. Thus, Tinubu could be on the horns of a dilemma as his party, APC, also has a governorship candidate, Senator Teslim Folarin, who is hot in contest in the race. In a recent interview, Folarin had scored Makinde 1 and half over 10.
Whether the people in the state agreed with his rating, time would tell.
Folarin is the APC’s candidate and there is no way, he would not maximally benefit if Asiwaju Tinubu is elected President as presidential election shall hold before that of governorship that is bid to hold in March.
Folarin, however, faces another obstacle from the Accord Party’s governorship candidate, Adelabu.
Recall that Adebayo Adelabu was the APC’s governorship candidate in 2019 and was edged out of the governorship race in the party by the politics of Malla Bunni, the immediate past National Acting Chairman of the APC. Adelabu stormed out of the APC to become the Accord Party’s governorship candidate. His exit from APC has largely depleted the ranks of the APC.
With depletion of the APC members by Adelabu, who has gone to Accord Party and the presence of Makinde in the G5, PDP’s governors opposed to Atiku as Makinde is supporting Tinubu’s presidential ambition, it would be difficult, very difficult for Folarin to defeat Makinde in the March, 2023 governorship election in Oyo State.
– Tajudeen Adigun
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