The Presidential election which took place on 25th of February, 2023 had so much to talk about. But first, we want to name key factors that undermined Peter Obi’s chances in the election. Alot of factors can be said to have affected Peter Obi’s chances in the last presidential election and the 3 key factors that really worked against him are: The turnout of voters in the southeast because the secessionist agitations was a major one he tried to run away from.
The CDD, Director, Idayat Hassan, noted before the election that the secessionist agitations in the southeast could reduce turnout, which may not favour either the Labour Party flag bearer Peter Obi or People’s Democratic Party candidate Abubakar Atiku.
The organisation which made the observation in a report titled ‘Nigeria’s presidential polls: A SWOT Analysis’ released in Abuja last week Tuesday warned that rising insecurity, misinformation, money politics, religion and ethnic narratives may undermine the credibility of the 2023 election, which could be a negative factor for Peter Obi. The report signed by the CDD Director, Idayat Hassan, disclosed that the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, requires about 1.5 million election and security officials to successfully prosecute the elections.
The report said: “ With political campaigns looming in the coming weeks, key governance issues, such as insecurity would be a factor in the political calculations for the leading candidates as they traverse the country.
Noting that the 2023 general election is a significant logistical operation, CDD stressed that there will be significant logistic challenges in reaching the 176,846 polling units with election material. Don’t also forget that a week before the general elections, INEC released the number of agents of each political party. The Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, has said a total of 1,574,301 polling units agents were nominated by the nation’s 18 registered political parties for the general election.
A document released in the wee hours of Monday by the commission showed that the opposition Peoples Democratic Party PDP has the highest number of polling units agents – 176,588.
It is followed by the ruling All Progressives Congress APC with 176,233, New Nigeria Peoples Party NNPP has 176,200 and Labour Party LP with 134,874.
The Labour Party needs atleast more than 30 thousand agents to fill up. The implication of this is that, they would not have representatives in many polling units when the counting of votes takes place. This was a major factor that undermined Peter Obi’s chances. Another factor that worked against him is the spread of APC in major states of the country. In fact, APC has more than 15 Governors who were in support of their presidential flag bearer. This can not be said of Peter Obi.
As political gladiators crisscross the country preparatory to the 2023 general election, no fewer than 13 Governors elected on the ticket of the All Progressives Congress (APC) from the North were said to stake all that was required to guarantee its victory in the presidential race.
The determination of the 13 outgoing APC Governors to fully back APC candidate, Bola Tinubu was hinged on the immediate and long term implications of the outcome of the general election on their individual political career after exiting as two-term governors of their states.
Other factors, they noted, that swayed votes in favour of candidates are governors’ support, party leadership, ability to accommodate interests, harmonization of stakes, health, campaign agenda, propaganda, sympathy.
For supporters of the APC, its candidate, Tinubu ticked all boxes of criteria to emerge the next president.
They particularly noted that Tinubu will get the bulk of the votes of the South-West, while they bank on at least 13 Northern governors to mobilise Northerners to support the Tinubu/Kashim Shettima ticket. This didn’t work for Peter Obi, as he had no state governor in the entire 36 states of Nigeria.
And talking about the candidate the north trust the most, it’s no other person that Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. According to Kwamanda, who is the Chairman and Coordinator of the Arewa Media Organization, said already he has traversed Northern Nigeria and is convinced that the region is today 100 percent behind Tinubu.
“The North is believing in a Bola Tinubu presidency more than any other person, because they believe and know that after what President Buhari did today on security by solving its problems more specifically by about 70 per cent, Tinubu will immediately complete the remaining 30 per cent.”
On economics, he reminded Nigerians that one need not be told that Bola Tinubu has what is takes to turn around Nigeria in his first, and second years and also attract serious foreign investments while building a home economy just like what he did in Lagos. Another known fact is that, an average Fulani man doesn’t trust an Igbo man with power. The feeling is that, they will divide the country and the northerners aren’t prepared for this.
The Coalition of Northern Groups raised concern over the adopted method of Igbo Elders’ Consultative Forum and other groups clamouring for the emergence of a president of South-East extraction, saying the manner of their agitation was very wrong.
The Pan-Arewa socio-political organisation also alleged that the Igbo elders constituted a serious threat to national security with their recent warning that any attempt to elude the South-East geo-political zone of the Presidency in 2023 would rupture Nigeria’s corporate existence betrayed their desperation.
The CNG then, called for the immediate arrest and prosecution of IECF members led by former governor of Anambra State, Chief Chukwuemeka Ezeife, for threatening the nation, its institutions and the people.
The Spokesperson of CNG, Abdulazeez Suleiman, said these during a press conference a few months back.
He also knocked other Igbo leaders who, according to him, are thirsty for the zone to produce Nigeria’s next president for allegedly seeking to tamper with the nation’s criminal justice system by pressuring for the unconditional release of the leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra, Mazi Nnamdi Kanu.
There have been intense political posturing, permutations and fireworks, especially as the eight-year tenure of the President, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd), who is from the North-West, winds down.
However, the clamour for an Igbo president has since resonated with some Nigerians, especially as the apex Igbo socio-cultural organisation, Ohanaeze Ndigbo Worldwide, has been consistent in its demand for an Igbo President in 2023.
