To Unseat Pres. TINUBU In 2027
As the countdown to the 2027 General elections hots up, there have been alignments and re-alignments among Nigerian politicians. Many of them have been leaving one party to join the other.
One of such politicians is Mallam El-Rufai, the former Kaduna Governor, who has taken position in SDP and he hopes to galvanise all the CPC followers from the North, who came into the APC with Pres. Buhari years back, to leave the party once again and join the SDP, so as to strengthen his coalition against Pres. Tinubu.
What El-Rufai wants to do is to build a strong coalition to tackle Tinubu and replace him with another Southerner preferably from South-East. And he says he is quite serious about it. He hopes to work with the likes of Ogbeni Aregbesola to garner more votes. He hopes to get some of the Northern politicians who lost out during the last APC party primaries. He plans to work with Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, his former boss. He wants to also work with Peter Obi.
He believes an Obi/El-Rufai Ticket can do the magic. He believes if he fields a Southerner, he can effectively tackle Tinubu. And if he wins, Obi will spend only one term. And the Presidency will go back to the North.
But he is not finding the coalition easy to achieve. In the first place, he has found out that SDP the party he has gone to, is full of Tinubu loyalists.
No wonder some of the existing stakeholders in the party have begun to battle him from within.
Sen. Olu Agunloye was the first SDP party chieftain to tackle him, followed by the exco of the SDP in Kaduna State.
2ndly, he has problems with his former APC party members in Kaduna. They have vowed to stop him. 3rdly, he has also found Atiku unyielding, in his resolve to contest as presidential candidate in PDP.
4thly some of those he has approached have been wary of joining forces with him. Some have come out to say contrary to media reports, they are not joining the SDP.
Reason? They are not sure if Rufai can pull it through.
El-Rufai’s strategy is a simple one. He wants to hide behind the image of former President, Muhammadu Buhari, who El-Rufai says has his blessings. He came out recently to say that he has been in constant touch with Buhari. El-Rufai has been mentioning Buhari name since. Insiders say the reason he brought in Buhari is because it will help him galvanise members of the CPC, many of whom are fiercely loyal to Buhari.
City People gathered that he needs Buhari because he believes be can benefit from Buhari’s proverbial 12 million bloc votes. He wants to benefit from Buhari’s cult like followrship in the North.
But many political analysts have queried all these assumptions, wondering if Buhari still commands that bloc votes in view of current political realities.
Is the North still a monolithic North asked a political analyst last week? Is the North itself not divided, with some of them opting to pitch their camp with Tinubu?
Some have asked if El-Rufai has that warchest to fight Tinubu.
Does El-Rufai still have the power and influence he wielded in 2023 to sway people to his side?.
Sources close to President Tinubu say they feel Okay with El-Rufai being the arrow head of opposition to the President because they know he can’t go far.
They claim to know his Strengths and Weaknesses. They openly say that they know that El-Rufai’s efforts will come to nougaht because of his Ambition & Power. City People gathered that some politicians who have been invited to join the SDP are not comfortable with El-Rufai as the arrowhead of the coalition.
City People gathered that Tinubu is not bothered.
His Boys have made sure that SDP which El-Rufai has gone to, will be in political turmoil till 2027, just to frustrate him.
Already, many SDP chieftains in Kaduna have disowned him saying he is not a bonafide member. Senator Olu Agunloye has kicked against him.
Tinubu loyalists have also put in place strategies that will neutralise El-Rufai’s efforts.
So, can Mallam El Rufai, Atiku, Aregbesola & Cob eat Pres. Tinubu, come 2027?
That is the big question on the lips of many political analysts.
In Kaduna, where he was governor for 8 years, many of the APC chieftains there, see his exit as good riddance. They have been full of joy. Senator Shehu Sanni revealed in an interview with Channels TV that no one will miss El-Rufai. He revealed how the former governor had created problems in the state which led to the forceful exit of many of the key party chieftains from the party and the loss at the polls to the PDP.
Now that El-Rufai has left the APC in Kaduna, many of those who left the party years back are back. They have breathed a sigh of relief. Many of them don’t like him and they have accused him of frustrating them out of the party. They alleged that he is a difficult man to relate with.
El-Rufai himself has deep contempt for a few APC leaders, like the incumbent governor, Gov. Shehu Sani and the National Security Adviser, Mallam Nuru Ribadu. In his ARISE TV interview weeks back, he specifically mentioned that Gov. Sanni & Ribadu are no longer his friends, because they don’t mean well for him.
Politically, many feel El-Rufai made the wrong move by opting out of the APC for SDP, which is seen as a relatively weak party. Some political analysts also feel he overrated his political rating by leaving APC for SDP.
So, what is El-Rufai aiming at? He wants all the progressively minded politicans in the North to come together under one big umbrella or Coalition, in SDP to fight Tinubu in 2027. Over the last few month he has been reaching out to many politicians across the parties. He has been consulting widely.
But the big question many are asking is: does El-Rufai have the clout to swing support to his side? Does he have the financial muscle to pursue a vigorous Vote Pres. Tinubu Out campaign between now and 2027? Can El-Rufai and someone like Atiku, his former boss, work together harmoniously? How strong are the other key political players like Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola & co that he is working with?
There are a lot of permutations in the air. There are strong indications that some former ministers of ex-President Muhammadu Buhari who came from CPC will move en masse to the Social Democratic Party.
The calculation is that at least 10 former members of Buhari cabinet will move to the SDP. What they’re waiting for is the finalisation of the party structure in their respective states.
Leading Buhari loyalists in the defections are the former National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress, Abdullahi Adamu; ex-Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Abubakar Malami; and former Senate President, Ahmed Lawan.
El-Rufai, who has been a vocal critic of Tinubu’s administration, disclosed that he in fact sought Buhari’s approval before leaving the APC.
“I left the APC with his (Buhari’s) full knowledge. I visited him on Friday and informed him of my decision to leave the party because I involve and consult with him on all my matters”.
“I have those I consult with in everything I do. I inform them of anything I intend to do, and when they demand that I keep off, I do. My first godfather is Muhammadu Buhari”, El-Rufai told BBC Hausa service.
El-Rufai’s defection and Buhari’s purported approval has led to many defections because some other members of the APC in the North, especially those in CPC, have also been dumping the APC.
Recall that Buhari, El-Rufai, Malami, and Lawan were leaders of the Congress for Progress Change till the party joined Action Congress of Nigeria, a part of the All Progressives Grand Alliance, and members of the New Peoples Democratic Party to form the APC in 2013.
There is also the talk about coalition involving some aggrieved leaders of the APC.
Following El-Rufai’s defection, an APC Chieftain, Ahmad Kaita, who is a former Senator, and member of the House of Representatives from Katsina, also joined the SDP. He is not the only one. Others like former Kaduna State Commissioners for Agriculture, Ibrahim Hussaini; Justice, Aisha Dikko; Health, Amina Baloni; and Education, Halima Lawal; as well as former Head of Service, Hajiya Bari’atu Mohammed, also dumped the APC for the SDP.
Also, the Campaign Secretary of the APC in Gombe State during the 2015 General elections, Adamu Modibbo, has also left the party. Modibbo is now the Chairman of the SDP in the state.
A former Publicity Secretary of the APC in Borno State, Abdulaziz left the party. Galadima also confirmed that many original CPC members would leave the APC for SDP or another party.
High-profile politicians from PDP, defunct CPC, ACN and APC are among others who are set to leave.
Those involved across the geographical zones include serving and former governors and senators, former ministers, and past and present party officials.
Some include former governors of Rivers, Imo, Cross Rivers, Sokoto and Osun States, Rotimi Amaechi, Emeka Ihedioha, Liyel Imoke, Aminu Tambuwal and Rauf Aregbesola, respectively, as part of the stakeholders in the coalition movement. A former Senate President, David Mark; ex-National Chairman of APC, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun; a former Buhari’s Minister of State for Education, Emeka Nwajiuba, and the Senator representing Borno South, Ali Ndume, among others, were also involved in the coalition.
Some members of the CPC bloc of the party have also been leaving. CPC is a strong bloc in the APC.
Those leaving the APC are foundation members who have genuine followers. Apart from El-Rufai, other former governors are also involved in the political movement.
Former Minister of Sports and Youth Development, Solomon Dalung, is already in SDP. Dalung, left the APC for the SDP in 2022.
El-Rufai has also reached out to former Governor of Osun State, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, former APC National Chairmen, Senator Abdullahi Adamu and Chief John Odigie-Oyegun. Although, Oyegun and Adamu were never in the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), there is an understanding among the leadership of the CPC for all of them remaining in the APC, to move en masse to the SDP when the time comes.
Interestingly, there are top Northerners who do not see El-Rufai as the rallying point in the North for Tinubu’s ouster.
But there are strong indications that there are some Northerners behind the “grand design” to dislodge President Tinubu. There are groups like the League of Northern Democrats, the Arewa Consultative Forum, the Northern Elders Forum, and the traditional rulers in the region, who are all part of the plot to unseat the President.
