TINUBU Vs OSINBAJO How ATIKU Will Benefit From It

There is uneasy calm in the APC region over the 2023 presidential primaries and plot to whittle down the numerical strength of the Southern region of the All Progressive Party, following the unfolding political game plan of the northern cabal. Indication proves that the Osinbajo/Asiwaju contest is a deliberate attempt to undermine the south so as for the cabal to produce a preferred candidate. Rather than Though the 2023 election is barely ten months to go, the state APC is said to be concerned by recent developments which showed some powerful cabals are trying to tear the south apart by pitching VP Osinbajo against Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

Political spectators are of the view that the internal crisis aggravated by the party stakeholders may give room for the opposition PDP to have a field day at the poll, regardless of whosoever emerges from the APC at the primaries.

The APC has set out to conduct it presidential primary by May 30, 2022, where no fewer than 10 aspirants from the south will jostle shoulder to shoulder for the ticket. In the heat of the political calculation, the indication that the president has picked a preferred candidate, although not confirmed, has begun to incite internal rancour among the aspirants, the delegates, and key figures within the party.

Conspiracy theorists have also connected many dots pointing in the direction of the Vice President as the anointed one from Aso Villa, fingering his free access to deploy presidential machinery to propel his ambition.

He has also been faced with a lot of backlash from analysts who believed his declaration to contest against Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu s an act of betrayal. Whichever way the pendulum eventually swings, the outcome of the primaries has a high likeliness to break the APC into several parts. While some parts will move away to join forces with other parties, some factions will remain within the party to play the spoiler.

As of today the schisms in the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), have led to the formation of at least four different camps: Vice President Osinbajo has his camp, Rotimi Amaechi, Minister of Transport on one side; and Tinubu, the national leader of the APC and the speaker of the house of representative on another camp. Rauf Aregbesola is leading another movement. there is a camp that is also controlled by the APC Chairman, Abdullahi Adamu, who is likely to be the decider of the primary. The APC Governor’s forum has its own interest and the southeast are standing alone. All these abnormalities are paving the way for the PDP to play upon and ultimately clinch the presidency if the internal rancour persists.

The PDP, according to an inside source has agreed to run on a consensus candidacy with former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar standing tall ahead of other contestants. Sources also reveal that the chance of getting 90 per cent support for Atiku ahead of the others is very high, as calculations that will benefit the party is to get a candidate from the north.

Once there I a crack in the APC, the voters will jettison party affiliation and go with their preferred candidates based on ethnic and religious sentiments. In this case, a presidential candidate from the south, who is a Christian will not be considered by the core northern voters where there is a better alternative for them: a core Muslim who is highly revered and also from the north.

Also, the ethnic-rigid voters who voted for Buhari in 2015 and 2019 may not yield to his directive in 2023, because the candidate he may be recommending is not Buhari himself. They voted for him because he was the candidate. The Kwankwasiyya for instance, voted for Buhari in 2019, despite the fact that Kwankwaso had already decamped to the PDP. But they voted for the PDP gubernatorial candidate in Kano. This shows that the northerners believe in Buhari as an individual, but does not share his sentiments. This also goes to show that President Buhari has little or no persuasive influence on the north as it was popularly stated.

The danger, according to an APC insider is that the northerners in their massive influence at the poll will eventually vote along ethnic and religious paths.

The third force, which is the third option in the calculation would only share and divide the numbers of the APC, but the structure of the state remains with the two major parties namely APC and PDP. By the time the APC is divided into several parts, not one of the components will be as strong as the PDP who are evidently desperate to return to power.

Atiku does not see anything wrong in a Fulani replacing a Fulani. He agrees with the popular thinking, up North, right now, that nothing stops a Northerner from taking over from a Northerner. They feel the North has been cheated. They feel they have not completed their tenure since the exit of late Yar’Adua.

What will also work for Atiku is that although both Atiku and Buhari are Fulani, Atiku has an added advantage. While he is accepted as a Fulani and a Moslem by the North, the South does not see him as a fundamentalist the way they perceive Buhari. So, Atiku has a win-win chance and is more acceptable in all parts of the country.

Source of elites in the North are unhappy that Buhari has demystified the concept of talakawa and has thrown everyone, both the rich and the poor into further penury. So the theory that poor man should rule the country is no longer an attractive narrative.

Currently, PDP controls 14 states including Abia State, Adamawa State, Akwa Ibom State, Bauchi State, Bayelsa State, Benue State, Delta State, Enugu State, Edo State, Oyo State, Rivers State, Sokoto State, and Taraba State, . The exit of Ben Ayade from the PDP to APC reduced the ratio to 13;22 while Anambra remains in the control of APGA.

The APC will therefore need to return to the drawing board and ensure that the presidential primary is conducted under the freest and fairest atmosphere to avoid an exponential implosion that may take a long time to repair.

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