•PDP Chieftaincy, Chief TUNDE ODANYE Tells City People
Chief Tunde Odanye is a PDP Chieftain who never hides his love for his party. He is a lawyer who is quite active politically. A few days back, he spoke to City People Publisher, SEYE KEHINDE about the current political situation in the country. Below are excerpts of his interview.
How do you see the on-going Presidential race?
It is most important as our continued trajectory as a nation, whether it will be upwards or downwards, depends squarely on the outcome of the elections. No doubt the choices we make and the sanctity of the election whether free and fair or not would decide the fate and future of this Country. Nigeria is a great Country, one of the most blessed on the Planet and with the possibility of being one of the greatest Countries in the world. She is blessed with everything from Human to Mineral Resources in abundance, a huge swath of land with 80% arable land and steady rainfall. It’s people are fantastic, brave, bold, gifted, brilliant, talented, very hardworking and exceedingly resourceful. However, it’s curse is it’s leadership many of whom have turned out to be nothing but Carpet Baggers. This leadership unfortunately have learnt and mastered the art of using money to get power and power to get and cement even more money. The monied elite and the political leadership are thus largely one and the same. Being who and what they are they tend to care more of their pockets than the Country. In any case, very few of them made their monies honestly in the first place so what’s with more crime to increase, consolidate and keep it. Proof of Nigeria’s great but wasting potential can be gleaned from the huge leaps in growth anytime we have close to good leadership in the country from the first republic to OBJ-GEJ’s tenure.
I believe we have 18 Candidates running for the position of President and whilst I miss the fervour, enthusiasm and the unifying and edifying rhetoric of people like Moghalu, new candidates like Kola Abiola (PRP), and a few others have been an interesting revelation. I think one of the most encouraging thing about this election is the enthusiasm and determination of the youth to not only be part of this election, but to influence its outcome, its like Endsars on steroids, they are to borrow their expression, totally and completely “woke”. They certainly have woken up. It is absolutely beautiful watching their campaign. skits et al on social media not only encouraging people to pick up their PVCs, those not to vote for and those to vote for. They have also been turning up at rallies in large numbers as well as staging marches, protests, symposia and many other things.
At the same time the level of some candidate’s campaigns have been very pedestrian and disappointing, particularly worrisome is the fact that some of these candidates are supposed to be frontrunners in the contest and are expected to know better. Instead of a robust, mature, and intellectual campaign what we are getting is vulgar abuse and a repeat of the hollow and unachievable promises we were swamped with in 2015 and 2019. Another new dimension appears to be the publishing of absolute falsehoods purportedly in the name of renown scholars, clergymen and political leaders. People like Pastor Adeboye, the Sultan of Sokoto, Prof Wole Soyinka, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, Chief Reuben Fashoranti, Chief Ayo Adebanjo, Prof Bolaji Akinyemi and a host of others have been victims and must be at their wits end.
The contest is turning out to be a three (3) Horse Race, with a huge amount of money and other resources and money being deployed. The rallies have been very colourful and entertaining and at every turn we are treated to new drama. There has been the sad distraction of frivolous yet very expensive litigation which if deployed in saner climes would have had their counsel disbarred. I think this new concept of trying to get through the back door what they know they can’t win in a free and fair elections is very disturbing, counterproductive and hurting the Judiciary which suddenly finds itself unwittingly and unwillingly embroiled in Politics and its Judges exposed to all sorts of temptations with conflicting and confusing judgements now the order of the day. Lastly it has exposed many of our hitherto “respected” political leaders and icons as well as some so-called social crusaders to be nothing but two bit hustlers and snake oil salesmen. They unashamedly change positions with more frequency than a baby’s diaper is changed and contradict their own sworn testimonies and positions in a fashion con-artists would envy. They have confirmed to us what we have always suspected; that their stomach is their god and they are nothing but hypocrites.
How do you see the chances of the top 4 contenders?
I actually think it is more like 3 top contenders, plus 1 as I doubt Dr Rabiu Kwankwaso is really on ground beyond a few States in the Northern part of the Country. I know he has a very little presence in Lagos with people like Ladipo Johnson coordinating and running around for him but I doubt he’d make 10% of the votes in Lagos State. The undeniable front runners therefore in my view are Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and Mr Peter Obi.
I believe Alhaji Atiku Abubakar would win on the first ballot. I think he would have the highest number of votes and the only candidate to score 25% in 24 States of the Federation. Some have said Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s party the APC has more Governors than Alhaji Abubakar’s PDP so what is the basis for my conclusion. My response is that BVAS is going to be a great game changer in the forthcoming elections as it has already started to demystify State Governors who relied on rigging to claim to be in control of the votes of their States. We all knew that a lot of rigging took place at collation centres during manual collation in the past thus having 25 Governors doesn’t guarantee you victory anymore. Under the old system with Labour party having no Governor Mr Peter Obi wouldn’t have had the chance of a snowball in hell as his teeming supporters votes would not have counted without the structure of State Governors. Having said that maybe I should qualify my enthusiasm about BVAS in the light of the recent Osun State Tribunal Judgement where there were two BVAS Results with the Tribunal Judges choosing which they preferred.
I think Alhaji Atiku Abubakar has more spread than all the other candidates, including the other 2 or 3 frontrunners. His Political Party has a presence in all the nooks and crannies of the Country having been in existence since 1999 meaning he has a structure across the Country. he also has name recognition across the Country having been in politics at the highest level since 1990/1991 including Vice President for 8 years 1999-2007. Anywhere he does not win outright he is likely to come second and this is across all the 6 regions of Country. This cannot be said of the other top contenders. Bola Tinubu is very weak in at least two regions; where he’s not likely to score 25% ditto for Peter Obi. Whilst Bola Tinubu is likely to have majority votes in the South West; winning 3-4 States, Atiku is likely to win the rest thereby following closely with the majority votes in the South West. Peter Obi isn’t likely to win any State in the South West but would certainly do very well in Lagos State. Atiku is likely to win the North West especially the 3K States with the largest voter population – Kaduna, Katsina and Kano, not to talk of Sokoto, Kebbi, Jigawa and Zamfara. There he would build a significant majority. Where he doesn’t win he would definitely score 25%. The second position in those States would be split between Bola Tinubu and Kwankwaso with Peter Obi doing well in Kano and Kaduna but not guaranteed 25%. In the South East and the South South the contest is likely to be between Peter Obi and Atiku, with Peter Obi having the edge and Atiku scoring 25% in all the States. Bola Tinubu and Kwankwaso are unlikely to score 25% in any of those States. In the North Central Region, States like Kwara and Kogi are likely to be between Atiku and Bola Tinubu, with the loser scoring over 25% whilst Benue, Plateau, Niger and Nasarawa would be a 3 horse race between Atiku, Bola Tinubu and Peter Obi with Atiku scoring 25% in any he doesn’t win. As for the North East Atiku is more or less sure of winning Adamawa, Bauchi and Taraba States, with Bornu, Yobe and Gombe a two way race indeed a toss-up between Atiku and Bola Tinubu, again he is likely to score at least 25% in the States he doesn’t win. Kwankwaso’s strength and influence on the other hand I believe is limited only to a few States in the North West, (even his Kano State might not vote for him if they conclude he cannot win the elections whereby they would be wasting their votes) and arguably one or two States in the North East.
You seem to be biased in favour of Atiku. Why?
Let me start by saying on a personal note I am closest to Bola Tinubu who I’ve been friends with since 1981 and have supported all his elections starting from when he ran for Senate in 1992 and both his Gubernatorial Elections. Peter Obi I met once at Freedom Online’s 2022 annual lecture and spoke with for just about 3 minutes. However Nigeria to my mind is presently at crossroads, and we not only need our brightest and best in office at this time more than ever, we need someone that can hit the ground running. If we get our candidate right we can dig ourselves out of the hole we are presently in and go on to great things and if we get it wrong we might find ourselves in the mould of Somalia, Zimbabwe, the Democratic Republic of Congo etc.
As for my bias for Alhaji Abubakar Atiku, I am in PDP and he is my party’s candidate/representative in the race. Asides that he is undoubtedly the most experienced of all the candidates having been vice president in a very successful regime. He is also the most experienced politician amongst the contenders having narrowly missed the SDP’s Presidential Ticket to the late Alhaji Moshood Kasimawo Olawale Abiola in 1992. He is the most prepared amongst the candidates and when you hear him talk you know he has a plan, not the mere rhetoric and promises some candidates treat us to daily. They promised us Pies in the Sky and built us Castles in the air in 2015 and 2019 forgetting that government is serious business. Weren’t we all shocked to discover that their Candidate in those elections though desiring and competing for the office over a period of 12 years before he finally won the elections in 2015 never had a plan or a Blueprint.
Alhaji Atiku Abubakar’s antecedents speaks volumes for him especially his ability to source, identify and back competent people to succeed in political offices and positions. The identification and appointment of the majority of our most iconic Public Office Holders of this democratic dispensation e.g Soludo, Okonko-Iweala, Akinwunmi, El-Rufai, have been traced to him and most of them aren’t even from his part of the Country. This to my mind shows a man competent and diligent in his craft. I believe this Country now more than ever requires such a man as President, a man that can hit the ground running and not one having to spend a year or two learning the ropes with disastrous consequences like we’ve had with the outgoing government.
Now what do those not favourable disposed to Atiku have against him? I certainly haven’t heard anyone say he’s not competent or qualified, or that he’s physically or mentally unfit, the one thing I hear them say is that they feel he is corrupt and made his money by selling most if not all Privatised Government Property to himself. The basis of this conclusion? Gen Olusegun Obasanjo said so. I am a lawyer and we are trained to investigate, introspect as well as subject everything to empirical tests and logic. In 1999 Gen Obasanjo and Alhaji Atiku went into Government together with Atiku rich and already Governor Elect of Adamawa State, Gen Obasanjo on the other hand was broke having just survived late Gen Abacha’s Gulag. When they came out in 2007 we could not distinguish who was richer, yet we are to believe that one was clean and the other corrupt. Furthermore, it is common knowledge that under our current Presidential System of Government no Vice President or Deputy Governor can make money without the express approval and/or concurrence of the President or Governor. Indeed those close to the Obasanjo/Atiku Presidency not only claim Atiku was not only seriously marginalised during their second term, they claim even his office was starved of its statutory allocations. Add to these the unsuccessful probes of Atiku during and after his exit from office, all of which vindicated him, what is the proof of this so called corruption. I therefore attribute all those brutal comments by Obasanjo at the time and in his books to the Politics of Succession and an attempt to give a dog a bad name to hang it.
How do you see the position of Gov Wike and the G5?
For people who have attained such high political offices I am shocked they don’t seem to appreciate the potential disastrous consequences of their actions or they appreciate it but cannot be bothered. Even their motives are suspect. How can anyone honestly believe their cause is PDP’s or the nation’s priority at this time. We are locked in a mortal battle between light and darkness, good and evil, if the wrong candidate wins the next elections we are on the way to a one party state and stranded forever. We all know that the longer one party stays in government the more difficult it is to displace them, not to talk of people who are ready to do anything to remain in power. In any case how do you claim to fight a battle for people who neither feel aggrieved nor want such a potentially costly and risky battle at this time. Most people I know in the South are more interested in getting their Country back than where the National Chairman of their party or the PDP hails from. First things first, let us win the Elections first then we can then sort out our party positions. Wike the leader of the pack claims he’s fighting for the South why did he wait until he wasn’t chosen as Vice Presidential Candidate before he decided to start this war of attrition? Why not immediately after Atiku won the Primaries? Are we to assume had he been chosen as Vice Presidential Candidate instead of Okowa, we would be having this discussion?. When the election was thrown open to all parts of the country by the Ortom Panel to qualify the South South and by extension Wike to run shortly after Six (6) years of President Goodluck Jonathan from the South South, did it not occur to him that should Atiku win both the Presidential Candidate and the National Chairman would be from the north (even if one is from the north east and the other the north central and there’s been precedent for it in the past). I doubt what is going on is lost on anybody, Wike is a poor loser reacting to what he considers to be a gang-up against him by a northern caucus comprising Ayu, Atiku, Tambuwal and some others. Personally I think what set him off is the video of Ayu referring to Tambuwal as the hero of the convention for stepping down for Atiku. All said and done I think they should have negotiated their demands when the window was open, now the party is moving on hoping to win without them.
