Why Many Fear The NORTH Will Betray TINUBU

•The Main Issues Revealed

If there is one presidential candidate right now that is enjoying a lot of goodwill from the generality of Nigerians, it is the standard bearer of the APC, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. He is regarded as the leading candidate and one with the biggest possible chance to win the presidential election next month and become president of Nigeria. And a large chunk of the votes he is expected to win with will have to come from the northern region of the country. This is why the APC flag bearer has been spending a lot more of his time and resources campaigning in the Northern states, reaching out to the grassroots and meeting with their Emirs and political leaders to market himself to them and assure them they have nothing to fear if they vote for him. And if the massive support he got from the northern delegates at the APC primary is anything to go by, then it’s almost certain that he will get quite a lot of votes from the north. But many political observers do not share this optimism. They fear that historically, the north has not been fair to the Yoruba people when it comes to the presidency and as far as they are concerned, Asiwaju’s case might not be an exception. They have warned repeatedly that no matter how hard he tries to please the northerners, they will betray him and then instal their son, Atiku Abubakar, in power. Could they be right? Are there handwritings on the wall that suggest there could be another backstab from the north like they did Awolowo and Abiola? City People can proffer answers to these questions. 

 If you ask members of the Tinubu camp, they will gladly tell you Asiwaju has done all the necessary work and that the north will rally round him like they are already doing and vote massively for him come next month. But another school of thought calls for caution. They insist that the north loves power and would cling onto it with everything they have once it is within their reach. And the northern leaders are aware of this.They know that not a lot of people within and outside the Tinubu camp are wary of their loyaltry and support for Asiwaju. Only a few weeks ago, Kaduna state governor, Mallam Nasir el-Rufai, was addressing a large gathering of Northern APC Leaders which had the APC presidential candidate and the entire leadership of the APC in attendance, as well as top Northern elder statesmen and prominent monarchs. Clearly worried that many believe the north will betray Tinubu, the governor assured Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the North’s resolve to support him to the very end. He urged him to not entertain any fear of possible betrayal from the north, that they are a people whose word is their bond. The governor spoke eloquently and with conviction, leaving no one in doubt as to his sincerity. Hear him:    

“When the Northern APC Governors met one Saturday evening and took a position that we insist that in our party, power must rotate to the south, we did so out of the understanding of our sense of history. We always ask ourselves as northern governors, what would Sir Ahmadu Bello do in the circumstances? What would Tafawa Balewa do? What would Aminu Kano do, before we take a position? Because we are the inheritors of that legacy. The 19 Northern governors and the minister of FCT are the direct inheritors of Ahmadu Bello, Sar Dauna of Sokoto. We are conscious of that burden of responsibility and that is why when we debate and take positions, we have these illustrious sons of northern Nigeria as our reference points. And we took that position without regard to the interest of some people who insisted that after eight years of president Buhari’s tenure he should be succeeded by yet another northerner. We felt as northern governors that this is not in our character, we are not like that. We are people of honour and justice. This is what our grand fathers did. This is what our parents, some of whom are sitting here, did. It is our duty to protect the sacred word of any northern politician. When we say we will do something, it doesn’t have to be written, we do it and we deliver on it. That’s how we started the process of delivering Bola Ahmed Tinubu. We are confident that with the collective support of all of us, with the directed wisdom of our elders, with the energy of our youths and the compassion of our women in northern Nigeria, we will make Nigeria great again.” He pauses and then directs his speech to the APC standard bearer, “So, Asiwaju, whatever you see here is real, we do not pretend. We have received you because we believe in you and we will continue to do so till the very end until you’re declared the president by the grace of God.”

This reassurance from Mallam Nsir el-Rufai should ordinarily be enough to allay any fear of a possible betrayal and calm down frayed nerves, but it is till not enough. Some have expressed that, indeed, the Kaduna State governor and a few others may share his sentiments but that several others, who are the die hard power drunk northerners, won’t see things that way. They believe that the presidency is their birth right, and only they, not any other region of the country, can decide who becomes president of Nigeria and when. This is exactly the position of a top politician City People spoke to. According to him, the battle to win over the north is far from over for Asiwaju. 

“You just can never trust the northerners not to spring a surprise on you,” said the politician who wishes to remain anonymous. “Have you forgotten what they did to MKO Abiola? Yoruba people can never forget what they did, and I know Asiwaju too has not forgotten, so he knows he must be careful with these people. They love power. They will do anything to hold onto it. Asiwaju is Yoruba, Atiku Abubakar is a Fulani, their own flesh and blood, do you really think they will abandon him and go for a Yoruba man instead? Quite frankly, I don’t see that happening.”

We asked him what he thinks about the massive crowd that we have seen each time Asiwaju is campaigning anywhere in the north. “It still does not mean anything until they translate their love for him into votes. I have also been impressed by the large turn outs at the campaign grounds, but anything can still happen at the last minute. You know the northerners listen to their leaders. They do not question their leaders, they do as they are told. What if a few weeks to the election they are told not to vote for Asiwaju but for Atiku, what do you think will happen?”

But what are the signs he is seeing at the moment that are giving him serious cause for concern? “Well, to start with, has anyone noticed that the president has not been campaigning with Asiwaju? President Buhari has been silent in terms of coming out boldly to join in the campaign and rally support for Tinubu, the man who helped him become president. This speaks volumes if you ask me. Buhari’s body language so far has not been encouraging and I’m sure this must worry Asiwaju but he probably believes that at the right time, they will deal with that before it becomes a big problem, that’s if it’s not deeper than what we see.”

And what else has he seen to suggest the north could gang up against Asiwaju in the end? “The retired Generals who call the shots, those who actualy decide who rules Nigeria, they have not in anyway shown they are with their kinsmen on this. I don’t see them lining up behind Asiwaju at the polls.And who are these retired Generals, we asked him? “Of course, you know them. I’m talking about General Ibrahim Babangida, General Abdulsalam and General Olusegun Obasanjo, who by the way has openly declared his support for Peter Obi. These three are the powerful retired Generals who call the shots. You also have the Emirs, all of whom can’t be said to be in support of the Jagaban Borgu. And once you do not have these people iin your corner, then there could be real problem. These Generals are not likely to be ready to instal an Asiwaju as president knowing full well he cannot be teleguided when he becomes president. That is not the kind of person they wamnt inside Aso Rock. Same with most northerners, they also have same fear as these Generals. They are scared of Tinubu. He wields enormous influence. He has an intimidating profile. He is immensely wealthy and enjoys huge respect within the rank and file. They are scared that if he gets to Aso Rock, he will no longer listen to them. He could begin to overturn all the policies of Buhari that favour the north. He could succumb to calls for restructuring. He could stop the north from benefitting a lot of the things they are presently benefitting from. These are their biggest fears and they are really svcared about these things and worried if Asiwaju wil not turn out to become their worst nightmare. If truth be told, some of their concerns are valid, it is up to Asiwaju to handle the situation very well and assure them their fears are unfounded.”

– WALE LAWAL

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