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That Will Determine The Next President
Do you know that the North-West and South-West account for over 44.6 million registered voters – the 13 states that could shape the 2027 presidential contest.
As political activities gather momentum ahead of the January 2027 presidential election, a fresh electoral analysis has drawn attention to 2 geopolitical zones that will occupy a prominent position in the battle for Aso Rock Villa.
They are the North-West and South-West geopolitical zones.
Why are these 2 zones attracting so much attention? The answer lies in their enormous voting strength.
An analysis of the Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) 2026 Voter register, shows that the North-West and South-West have a combined 44,697,685 registered voters.
This represents more than 43 per cent of Nigeria’s 103,428,715 registered voters.
The North-West alone has 25,083,411 registered voters, while the South-West has 19,614,274.
These figures place the 2 zones at the heart of the electoral calculations of the major political parties as they prepare for the 2027 presidential contest.
But what makes these two regions particularly important? Which states are involved? Who controls their political structures? And how will President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi approach the challenge?
NORTH-WEST: NIGERIA’S LARGEST VOTING BLOC
The North-West is Nigeria’s largest geopolitical voting bloc, with more than 25 million registered voters.
It consists of seven states:
- Kano State
- Kaduna State
- Katsina State
- Jigawa State
- Kebbi State
- Sokoto State
- Zamfara State
These seven states have considerable political significance because of their large populations, established political networks and history of strong participation in presidential elections.
Kano is particularly important. It has one of the largest electorates in the country and has historically produced substantial presidential votes.
In the 2023 election, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso’s NNPP won Kano, demonstrating the influence of the Kwankwasiyya political movement.
Tinubu will therefore have to contend with the political realities in Kano as he seeks to defend his position in the North-West.
Kaduna is another important state. It has a competitive political environment and is home to influential political figures, including former Vice President Namadi Sambo and former Governor Nasir El-Rufai.
In 2023, Atiku defeated Tinubu in Kaduna, polling 554,360 votes against Tinubu’s 399,293.
Katsina is equally significant. It is the home state of former President Muhammadu Buhari, whose political influence remains an important part of the state’s political history.
The other states – Jigawa, Kebbi, Sokoto and Zamfara – also have substantial electoral importance.
The North-West will consequently remain a major focus of presidential campaigns, political negotiations and alliance-building.
SOUTH-WEST: TINUBU’S POLITICAL HOMELAND
The South-West is the second major geopolitical zone highlighted by the voter-register analysis.
It has 19,614,274 registered voters, making it one of the country’s largest electoral blocs.
The 6 states are:
- Lagos State
- Ogun State
- Oyo State
- Osun State
- Ondo State
- Ekiti State
The South-West occupies a special position in the 2027 calculations because President Bola Ahmed Tinubu comes from this region.
Tinubu’s political journey is deeply connected to Lagos, where he served as governor from 1999 to 2007 and built an extensive political network.
His influence also extends across other parts of the South-West through political relationships, party structures and longstanding alliances.
However, the region is not politically uniform.
In the 2023 presidential election, Peter Obi defeated Tinubu in Lagos by 9,848 votes. Obi scored 582,454 votes against Tinubu’s 572,606.
That result demonstrated that even the president’s home region cannot automatically be regarded as a guaranteed electoral stronghold.
Oyo State also presents an interesting political situation. Governor Seyi Makinde and several other influential political figures have their own political structures and relationships that could affect the 2027 contest.
Osun, under Governor Ademola Adeleke, is another state to watch, particularly because of the political relationship between the governor, former Governor Gboyega Oyetola and the APC leadership.
Ogun, Ondo and Ekiti also have influential political leaders and established party structures.
For Tinubu, maintaining support across the six states will be an important part of his campaign calculations.
The significance of the North-West and South-West goes beyond the number of states they contain.
Together, they account for more than 43 per cent of Nigeria’s registered voters.
Their combined electoral weight makes them important to every presidential candidate seeking to build a nationwide coalition.
For the APC, the two regions are particularly important because of Tinubu’s political base in the South-West and the votes he secured in the North-West in 2023.
According to the electoral analysis, Tinubu scored 2,542,979 votes in the South-West and 2,652,235 in the North-West during the 2023 presidential election.
Interestingly, his North-West votes were higher than his South-West votes.
This demonstrates why the president cannot afford to concentrate his attention only on his home region.
What about Atiku? Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar also has significant political interests in the North-West and South-West.
His challenge is to consolidate support among northern voters while building alliances capable of attracting votes outside his traditional political base.
Kaduna’s 2023 result provides an indication of the competitive nature of the North-West.
However, the region is not a single political bloc. Kano’s Kwankwasiyya movement, the APC’s structures and the political interests of other northern leaders make the region a complicated electoral arena.
In the South-West, Atiku and other opposition figures will have to contend with Tinubu’s longstanding political relationships.
The question is whether opposition parties can establish sufficient cooperation to compete effectively across the region.
How about Peter Obi? Peter Obi’s performance in Lagos in 2023 showed that the South-West could produce a competitive presidential contest.
His challenge is to translate support in Lagos into a broader regional political presence.
He will also have to consider the different political dynamics in Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ondo and Ekiti.
The North-West is equally important, particularly because of Kano and the influence of Rabiu Kwankwaso.
The political relationship between Obi and Kwankwaso, and the extent to which their supporters can work together, will be important subjects in the 2027 campaign.
But the other 4 zones can’t be ingored. Although the North-West and South-West have attracted attention because of their combined voting strength, the other four geopolitical zones remain important.
They are:
North-Central: Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger and Plateau, alongside the Federal Capital Territory in the wider regional political calculation.
North-East: Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba and Yobe.
South-East: Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo.
South-South: Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo and Rivers.
These regions have their own political interests, influential leaders and voting constituencies.
The North-Central, in particular, has considerable importance because of its geographical position and its role in connecting northern and southern political interests.
The South-East and South-South also have significant electorates that could influence the national result.
There is an important distinction between having the largest voting population and actually producing the next president.
Under Section 134 of the 1999 Constitution, a presidential candidate must secure the highest number of votes cast and at least one-quarter of the votes in no fewer than two-thirds of all the states and the Federal Capital Territory.
This means that winning the North-West and South-West alone cannot guarantee victory.
A candidate must build a sufficiently broad national coalition to satisfy the constitutional requirements.
Also, Nigeria’s Constitution does not expressly provide for North-South rotation of the presidency. Zoning and rotation have instead operated as political conventions and party arrangements.
The debate over whether the South should complete an eight-year presidential cycle before power returns to the North has consequently become another major issue ahead of 2027.
But can any presidential candidate ignore these 2 zones? With more than 44.6 million registered voters between them, the North-West and South-West will command considerable attention during the 2027 presidential campaign.
For Tinubu, the challenge includes defending his South-West political base and retaining substantial support in the North-West.
For Atiku, the challenge includes mobilising northern support and expanding his political reach into the South.
For Obi, the challenge includes building on his previous performance in Lagos and strengthening his presence in the North-West.
One thing is clear: the North-West and South-West will be central to the political calculations of the major presidential contenders.
The 2027 presidential battle may be nationwide, but the electoral arithmetic of these 13 states will be closely watched.
