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As WIKE & SARAKI Political Group Take Over
All eyes are on Kwara State right now, where Gov. AbdulRahman AbdulRasaq is facing the opposition parties who have formed a coalition to take over power from him.
The big question is: Can the APC survive its internal crisis ahead of the 2027 Governorship Election?
For Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq of Kwara State, the political equation that brought him to power in 2019 is facing a major test as the 2027 general election approaches.
The governor and the All Progressives Congress (APC) are confronting a series of political developments that have altered the balance of power in the state. Prominent APC figures have defected to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), disagreements over the choice of the APC governorship candidate have deepened, and former Senate President Bukola Saraki has re-emerged as a central figure in the struggle for Kwara’s political future.
The most consequential development has been the defection of Senator Saliu Mustapha, who represents Kwara Central, from the APC to the PDP. His departure was followed by a gale of defections among his supporters and other party members, including more than 2,000 people reportedly leaving the APC in Adewole Ward, Ilorin West — Governor AbdulRazaq’s ancestral ward. 2 members of the Kwara State House of Assembly also defected to the PDP.
These developments have raised a question that is increasingly being discussed in Kwara political circles: Has Governor AbdulRazaq lost his grip on the political coalition that once made the APC dominant in the state?
The answer is not yet settled. AbdulRazaq continues to defend the APC’s position. And the ruling party retains its structures and candidates. But the governor’s succession battle has created an opening for the PDP to rebuild its political organisation and bring together some of the forces that helped the APC defeat the old political order in 2019.
To understand the present crisis, it is necessary to revisit the political earthquake of 2019.
For many years, Kwara politics was strongly associated with the political dynasty built by the late Dr Olusola Saraki and later led by his son, Dr. Bukola Saraki, the former Senate President.
The PDP was the principal platform through which that political structure exercised influence across the state. Its network extended into local governments, communities, traditional political circles and successive administrations.
The Oto-ge movement brought together opposition politicians, dissatisfied party members and voters who wanted a change in the state’s established political order. AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq emerged as the APC governorship candidate and defeated the PDP candidate, Abdulfatah Ahmed, who had governed the state for eight years.
The victory was more than a change of governor. It represented the collapse of a political arrangement that had dominated Kwara for years.
AbdulRazaq became the face of that change, while the APC benefited from the combined strength of several political groups that had previously operated separately.
But right now, one of the central problems facing AbdulRazaq is that he cannot seek a third consecutive term as governor. With his tenure due to end in May 2027, the question of who succeeds him has become a major source of tension within the APC.
Several influential figures had interests in the succession contest, including Senator Saliu Mustapha, a prominent APC politician from Kwara Central.
The governor eventually backed the Speaker of the Kwara State House of Assembly, Yakubu Danladi-Salihu, for the APC governorship ticket. Danladi-Salihu emerged as the party’s candidate after the May 22, 2026 primary.
His emergence was significant because he comes from Kwara North, a region whose political stakeholders have long argued that it should have an opportunity to produce the state’s governor.
For supporters of the zoning argument, the choice offered a route towards regional power rotation. For some aggrieved APC stakeholders, however, the process raised questions about internal consultation, fairness and the influence of the governor over the party’s succession arrangements.
Some party members alleged that the process favoured a preferred candidate. The APC leadership has defended the legitimacy of its primary and continued to support Danladi-Salihu.
The political consequence is clearer than the competing interpretations of the primary. The dispute has contributed to a rupture within the ruling party and created an opportunity for the opposition to attract dissatisfied APC members.
Senator Saliu Mustapha’s departure from the APC was one of the most important developments in the crisis.
Mustapha was a serving Senator representing Kwara Central and a prominent figure in the APC’s political establishment.
In announcing his resignation in August 2026, Mustapha referred to developments within the Kwara APC and said he had consulted stakeholders, supporters and constituents before deciding to leave.
His move to the PDP transformed an internal disagreement into a wider political realignment.
The significance lies not only in the senator’s personal political standing but also in the possibility that supporters, associates and local political organisers may follow him.
More than 2,000 APC members in Adewole Ward defected to the PDP, citing their support for Mustapha. The report was particularly notable because Adewole is associated with the governor’s family roots.
For the PDP, this provides an opportunity to expand beyond its existing loyalists and attract politicians with recent experience inside the ruling party.
For AbdulRazaq, it creates a challenge of party cohesion: how does the APC retain supporters who believe that their interests were not adequately represented in the succession process?
Another major factor is the role of Dr. Bukola Saraki.
The former Senate President remains an influential figure in Kwara politics and is closely associated with the political structure that the Oto-ge movement challenged in 2019.
The PDP’s opportunity is that the party is attempting to rebuild around Saraki’s political network while also welcoming politicians who have become dissatisfied with the APC.
Saraki’s involvement means the PDP is not approaching the next election solely as a party trying to recover from defeat. It has a recognisable political leader, established relationships and a new opportunity to draw in former APC members.
The APC members in Offa moved towards the PDP, with the report linking the development to political realignments involving Senator Lola Ashiru’s local structure and Saraki’s leadership. The defectors also expressed dissatisfaction with the APC administration.
The question for Saraki is whether he can turn these separate defections and grievances into a coordinated statewide political organisation.
The PDP’s emerging opportunity rests on several developments.
First, it can recruit from the ruling party. When prominent politicians and their followers leave the APC, the PDP has a chance to acquire experienced organisers, established relationships and political networks without building every structure from scratch.
Second, it can present itself as a gathering point for dissatisfied politicians. The party can seek support from those who feel excluded by the APC’s candidate-selection process, although it will have to accommodate their different interests.
Third, it can make the succession contest about more than the identity of the candidates. The PDP can challenge the APC over governance, political inclusion and the management of state resources. Whether those arguments resonate with voters will depend on the candidates’ records, public engagement and the evidence presented during the campaign.
Fourth, it can seek to reunite parts of the political coalition that helped the APC win in 2019. The opposition’s challenge is to establish a common programme rather than assume that everyone who left the APC will automatically support the PDP.
These developments explain why the PDP has reason to see the APC’s internal dispute as an opportunity. They do not establish that the opposition has already secured a statewide majority.
The choice of Danladi-Salihu has made the succession contest inseparable from the broader question of regional representation.
Kwara has 3 senatorial districts: Kwara Central, Kwara North and Kwara South. Political stakeholders from each region have their own expectations about representation, appointments, development priorities and access to political power.
Backing a candidate from Kwara North gives the APC a clear regional argument, particularly among those who support power rotation. But it also risks alienating politicians who backed other aspirants or expected a different arrangement.
The APC’s challenge is to convince aggrieved stakeholders that they still have a place within the party and that their political future does not depend entirely on who won the governorship primary.
If reconciliation fails, the PDP may continue to benefit from the movement of dissatisfied politicians. If the APC successfully reconciles its factions, the opposition’s current advantage in attracting defectors could diminish.
The central question is therefore not simply whether AbdulRazaq has chosen a successor. It is whether the ruling party can maintain unity around that choice.
The PDP has an opportunity, but it also faces its own challenges.
A party that attracts defectors from another party must manage competing ambitions. Former APC members may bring valuable political networks, but they may also have disagreements with existing PDP leaders over nominations, local influence and future appointments.
There is also the question of candidate legitimacy and internal organisation.
The political contest is no longer just a straightforward confrontation between the governor’s party and Saraki’s political camp.
The principal governorship contenders include:
Yakubu Danladi-Salihu (APC): The Speaker of the Kwara State House of Assembly and the ruling party’s governorship candidate.
Bolakale Kawu Agaka (PDP): The opposition party’s governorship candidate, who has been consulting stakeholders and seeking support across the state.
Zakari Mohammed (ADC): The African Democratic Congress candidate.
Abdulmumin Ajia (NDC): The Nigeria Democratic Congress candidate.
The presence of candidates from multiple parties means the contest will involve more than the APC–PDP rivalry. The effect of other parties will depend on their organisations, candidates and support among voters.
Mustapha’s defection, the movement of APC members into the PDP and the renewed role of Saraki have given the opposition an opportunity to reorganise.
The disagreement over the APC governorship ticket has contributed to the departure of influential politicians and supporters, giving the PDP a fresh opportunity to rebuild and challenge the ruling party.
For Saraki and the PDP, the opportunity is to turn those defections into a united, credible statewide organisation. For AbdulRazaq and the APC, the challenge is to reconcile aggrieved stakeholders, defend the administration’s record and persuade voters that the party can remain united beyond his tenure.
