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Using APM To Challenge Pres. TINUBU In The South-West
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Can BIMBO ADEKANMBI Defeat SHARAFADEEN ALLI?
The battle for the political soul of the South-West is gathering momentum ahead of the 2027 general elections, and one of the most consequential developments is the decision of Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde, to pursue his presidential ambition on the platform of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM).
For Makinde, the APM project is about more than securing a presidential ticket. It has opened a new political chapter in which he is seeking to build an opposition platform beyond the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), deepen cooperation among opposition parties and establish a political structure capable of competing with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). At the same time, Makinde has a battle to fight at home. He wants his preferred candidate, former Oyo State Commissioner for Finance, Bimbo Adekanmbi, to succeed him as governor.
These 2 ambitions are closely connected. Makinde must pursue a national contest while trying to preserve the political influence he has built in Oyo State over the past eight years.
Recent developments indicate that he is taking both assignments seriously. In August 2026, he held strategic talks with APM governorship candidates from the South-West. He has also participated in opposition coalition discussions involving several political parties, while the PDP and APM have signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at strengthening opposition cooperation ahead of 2027.
But can the APM become a credible platform for a wider challenge to Tinubu? Can Makinde turn his influence in Oyo into a broader national political force? And can Adekanmbi win the governorship election without Makinde himself being on the ballot?
These are the questions shaping the emerging political calculations. Makinde’s move to the APM represents a significant change in his political strategy.
For years, the PDP was the platform through which he built his political career, won the Oyo governorship in 2019 and secured a second term in 2023. However, the party’s internal crisis and the disagreements among its leading figures have complicated the search for a common opposition strategy.
Makinde has now chosen to pursue his presidential ambition through the APM, which adopted him as its presidential candidate in May 2026.
The governor’s argument is that the South-West should not be expected to support only one presidential candidate simply because Tinubu comes from the region. Speaking at the Makinde-Daura 2027 Presidential Town Hall Meeting in Akure on October 22, Makinde argued that the region could produce 2 presidential candidates and that the choice of Nigeria’s president should be based on leadership and governance rather than geography alone.
This position places him in direct electoral competition with Tinubu, but it also creates a political challenge. The APM must demonstrate that it can operate as more than a vehicle for Makinde’s personal ambition.
The party needs a recognisable national structure, credible candidates, active organisations in the states and a message that resonates beyond Oyo.
Makinde’s governorship experience and established political relationships provide a foundation for that project. Whether they can be converted into a national electoral organisation remains an open question.
One of the most important aspects of Makinde’s current political calculations is the effort to encourage cooperation among opposition parties.
In May 2026, the PDP and APM signed a Memorandum of understanding in Ibadan as part of efforts to strengthen opposition collaboration. Makinde and APM National Chairman Yusuf Dantalle witnessed the agreement.
The agreement matters because the opposition’s challenge is not simply to produce candidates against Tinubu. It is also to determine whether parties with different interests can cooperate without allowing their individual ambitions to undermine the wider objective.
In October, six opposition parties—the PDP, APM, African Democratic Congress (ADC), Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Social Democratic Party (SDP) and Peoples Redemption Party (PRP)—held consultations with presidential candidates, including Makinde, Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Adewole Adebayo and Donald Duke.
The consultations followed calls for sustained dialogue and a more coordinated opposition approach ahead of the 2027 elections.
However, discussions and agreements do not automatically produce a united electoral front. The parties must still resolve questions about presidential tickets, candidate selection, the distribution of political influence and the extent to which each organisation is prepared to support a common arrangement.
Makinde’s position is therefore both an opportunity and a test. His APM platform gives him a base from which to negotiate, but any wider coalition would require cooperation from politicians who have their own ambitions and established support networks.
The opposition must also determine whether cooperation will involve a single presidential candidate, a broader understanding on electoral issues or simply an agreement to maintain dialogue.
Until those questions are settled, the extent of any alliance against Tinubu remains uncertain.
Why is the South-West important to Makinde & Tinubu? The South-West is an important arena in the 2027 contest because Tinubu’s political career and longstanding party networks are deeply associated with the region.
Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ondo and Ekiti will all feature in the calculations of the presidential campaigns. The region’s political parties, influential officeholders, traditional institutions, grassroots organisations and voting blocs will be central to the contest.
For Makinde, the immediate task is to establish that his candidacy can attract support beyond his home state.
Oyo gives him a record of electoral victories and a political network developed over two governorship elections. But a presidential campaign requires a much wider organisation, capable of reaching voters across different states and negotiating the interests of political groups with different priorities.
Makinde must also distinguish his presidential message from his local succession campaign. Voters who support his administration in Oyo may not necessarily support the APM nationally, just as voters who oppose the APC in one state may not automatically agree on which opposition candidate to support for president.
Tinubu’s regional identity is another factor, but it is not the only one. Economic conditions, security, federal policies, the record of state governments, party loyalties and the credibility of the candidates can all influence voters’ choices.
Makinde’s argument that the South-West can produce two presidential candidates challenges the idea that regional identity should determine the outcome. The electoral question, however, is whether he can translate that argument into a substantial political following.
There is also the Peter Obi factor. The relationship between Makinde and Peter Obi is another development attracting attention in opposition circles.
Obi, who contested the 2023 presidential election on the Labour Party platform, has remained a major figure in discussions about an alternative national political direction. His supporters constitute an important constituency in the opposition’s calculations.
Recent meetings and public appearances involving Obi and Makinde have fuelled discussion about whether their camps could cooperate in 2027.
The central question is whether these political figures can agree on a workable arrangement without creating fresh divisions within their parties.
If Opposition cooperation remains limited to meetings and public statements, its electoral impact will be difficult to establish. If it produces practical agreements on mobilisation, candidates and the conduct of campaigns, it could alter the organisation of the contest.
For Makinde, the challenge is to remain part of the coalition-building process while maintaining his own presidential ambition.
Political analysts say Makinde’s biggest test maybe at home. While Makinde seeks a national platform, the political battle in Oyo State may prove equally important to his legacy.
He is backing Hon. Bimbo Adekanmbi, a former Commissioner for Finance, as the APM’s governorship candidate.
The choice carries considerable significance. Since the return to democratic rule in 1999, no outgoing Oyo governor has successfully transferred the governorship to a preferred successor. Makinde now faces that challenge as he prepares to leave office after 2 terms.
Adekanmbi’s campaign is closely associated with continuity, with the candidate expected to make the case for retaining aspects of the outgoing administration’s policies and programmes.
Who is Bimbo Adekanmbi? He is a former Oyo State Commissioner for Finance who has now emerged as the APM’s governorship candidate. His previous public service experience gives him a background in government finance and administration. His political association with Makinde has also placed him at the centre of the governor’s succession project.
Makinde recently disclosed that he had recommended Adekanmbi for a federal appointment during discussions with Tinubu, but the President instead selected Bayo Adelabu as Minister of Power. Makinde’s account offers an insight into the relationship between the two political figures and the history behind his support for Adekanmbi.
For the 2027 governorship contest, Adekanmbi’s task is to turn that relationship into a credible independent candidacy. He must explain what he would preserve from Makinde’s administration, what he would change and how his government would respond to the expectations of Oyo residents. He must also convince voters that his candidacy represents a programme for the state’s future rather than merely an arrangement to extend the incumbent governor’s influence.
How about the Alli & APC Chanllenge in Oyo State? The APC’s governorship candidate, Senator Sharafadeen Alli, is a major figure in the Oyo contest. The APC is seeking to regain control of a state it has not governed since 2019. It has a national party structure and access to a broad network of political officeholders and organisers, but it must also manage internal differences arising from the governorship primary.
For Adekanmbi, the challenge is to demonstrate that the APM can build an organisation capable of competing with the APC’s established network.
The outcome will depend on the candidates’ campaigns, the strength of their party structures, voter evaluations of the competing administrations and the ability of both camps to mobilise support throughout the state.
Many people wonder if Makinde can transfer his political capital to Adekanmbi. This is arguably the most important question in the current Oyo State succession contest.
Makinde has won 2 governorship elections, built a political network and established himself as a prominent figure in the state. But the support he receives as a candidate may not automatically transfer to Adekanmbi.
Adekanmbi must therefore find a balance between benefiting from Makinde’s record and developing his own political identity.
He will need to explain his priorities for education, healthcare, infrastructure, employment, agriculture, public finance and local economic development. He must also demonstrate how he would address concerns about the cost of living and the delivery of public services.
PDP’s role is another important element of the contest.
Makinde won his 2 governorship elections under the PDP, but his decision to pursue his presidential ambition through the APM has changed the political equation in Oyo.
The PDP must now determine how it will operate in a state where the incumbent governor has become associated with another platform. Its leaders must decide whether to pursue an independent political strategy, cooperate with the APM under the existing understanding or take a different course.
The broader opposition also faces a dilemma. Cooperation may help parties avoid unnecessary fragmentation, but each organisation has its own candidates, interests and supporters to consider.
The PDP’s decisions could therefore affect both the governorship contest in and discussions about the wider opposition’s presidential strategy.
The important distinction is between an agreement signed by party representatives and a fully coordinated campaign on the ground. The latter requires clear commitments, functioning structures and the willingness of supporters to accept the agreed arrangement.
Several issues will determine how far the APM project can progress.
First, the opposition’s internal divisions. Presidential ambitions and disagreements over party leadership could prevent opposition figures from settling on a common strategy.
Second, the challenge of building a national organisation. A strong political network in Oyo is not the same as a functioning campaign across all six geopolitical zones. The APM must demonstrate its capacity to organise and communicate with voters nationwide.
Third, the strength of Tinubu’s existing political networks. The APC’s established presence and the President’s relationships across the country will be part of the contest, although their electoral effects cannot be assumed in advance.
Fourth, the succession challenge in Oyo. Makinde must manage his presidential campaign while helping Adekanmbi establish an independent profile and build support across the state.
Fifth, the question of public policy and performance. Both the presidential and governorship campaigns will be judged partly on the candidates’ records, proposals and ability to address voters’ concerns.
Can Makinde defeat Tinubu in the South-West? That question remains open.
Makinde has established a political base in Oyo, secured the APM presidential ticket and participated in efforts to build cooperation among opposition parties. These are significant developments in the organisation of his campaign, political analysts say.
However, a presidential contest across the South-West and the wider country requires more than the support of one governor or a collection of opposition leaders.
Makinde’s campaign must demonstrate its ability to reach voters beyond Oyo, build durable alliances and articulate a national programme that voters can evaluate against the policies and record of the incumbent administration.
Tinubu’s regional identity, party organisation and political relationships will also feature in the contest.
The central issue is whether the APM can convert its political arrangements into an effective national campaign and whether opposition parties can cooperate while retaining their organisational identities.
Can Bimbo Adekanmbi win Oyo State? Adekanmbi’s candidacy will test Makinde’s ability to sustain his political influence beyond his own tenure.
The APM candidate has the advantage of being associated with the outgoing governor and his administration’s record. But he must also establish his own public profile, win the confidence of voters and demonstrate that he can govern effectively.
The APC’s Alli presents a competing option backed by a major national party, while the activities of the PDP and other political platforms could further shape the contest.
The practical questions are whether Adekanmbi can build a broad statewide organisation, whether Makinde’s supporters will mobilise effectively for him, whether the opposition can manage its internal disagreements and how voters assess the competing candidates’ records and programmes.
Makinde’s endorsement is an important part of the story, but it cannot substitute for the candidate’s own campaign.
The APM project has placed Seyi Makinde at the centre of 2 connected political contests: the struggle to build a national opposition platform against President Tinubu and the effort to secure a successor in Oyo State.
For Makinde, the challenge is to show that the platform can sustain a national campaign, while maintaining a credible political base at home.
The 2 central questions remain unanswered: how much of Makinde’s Oyo political influence can he extend to the wider South-West, and how much of that influence can Bimbo Adekanmbi inherit when the governor himself is no longer on the governorship ballot?
The 2027 elections will provide the test.
